Quick Turnaround

"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather." ~John Ruskin


Early on in most pilots training, we come to learn that weather, by its very nature, can be unpredictable. Forecasts do a good job of predicting what is likely to occur over the forecast period, although from time to time, nature reminds us that there are no sure bets. The aviation industry as a whole is well aware of this fact and gets around weather's ability to defy forecasts by having a plan B ready to be put into action when plan A fails to work out.

Looking out the flight planning room door as I typed up a flight plan for a trip to Grande Prairie, the weather looked decent, although the forecast called for things to deteriorate over the course of the morning. A low pressure system and its associated fronts was advancing into the area from the south-west bringing with it a mix of rain and snow. With forecast ceilings of 400 feet and visibilities as low as 1 mile at our planned arrival time back into the Edmonton, there existed a chance that we would not make it back into the city if the forecast proved true. In the pre-flight briefing, my copilot and I discussed the weather and this possibility and where we would be able to go if we couldn't get back in, in Edmonton. With one passenger left to check in and departure time nearing, we checked the weather once again. A new forecast had been issued since the last weather check which now called for ceilings in the 800 to 1000 foot range with visibilities between 2 and 4 miles. It seemed as though the low pressure area to the south was losing steam, and as a result the weather would not be nearly as bad as forecast. With this good news in hand, and the last of our passengers now checked in, we boarded, and took off north-west to Grande Prairie just as a light snow was beginning to fall. On the climbout, the air felt bothered, with light to moderate turbulence bouncing us around, and a trace of mixed ice collecting on the wings. Leveling at FL 200, we were not above all of the weather, although we were out of cloud between layers. A few minutes after passing the Whitecourt VOR, we flew into the clear, with only a undercast layer far below us and blue sky above.

120 miles out from Grande Prairie, with the ATIS calling the ceiling at 1400 feet and 6 miles visibility with snow showers, the copilot briefed me on the ILS to runway 30. Descending through 8000 feet we began to collect light icing as the turbulence picked up once again.

Established on the ILS, the runway started to emerge through the murk at 2 miles out, and with a slight crosswind from the right, the copilot set the plane down nicely on the runway with a textbook landing. After shutting down on the main apron, the copilot escorted our passengers in to the terminal while I cleaned the cabin and prepared the plane for departure. For a second I contemplated calling flight services to get an update on the weather back at the city, but as the copilot was now walking our outbound passenger to the plane I instead called dispatch to inform them we would soon be departing. I again thought about quickly calling for weather, but reasoned that only an hour had passed since our departure out of the city, and with the latest forecast predicting improving conditions, I didn't bother.

We took off into winds gusting out of the north, and shortly after starting the right turn to head south east towards Edmonton, we were informed by Edmonton centre that several aircraft had just missed going into the city airport, and while aircraft were still getting into the international, the weather was deteriorating there as well. Inwardly, I chastised myself for not checking the weather prior to departure, but quickly put that aside; there was work to do. Once above 10'000 feet, I had the copilot inform our passenger of the state of the weather to the south-east, and ran our plans by him to in an effort to find a plan that fit, not only the changing weather and our fuel on board, but also if possible, his planned meetings for the day. Level at FL 210, the copilot and I picked up the weather for everything within an hours range of the city, which would allow us enough fuel to fly an approach, hold for 15 minutes and then proceed to an alternate airport and still have a comfortable reserve of fuel. Aside from the weather having dropped at the city, the situation had remained similar to the weather I had checked when I had first came into work. The weather south of Edmonton was low and widespread enough to prevent us from being able to use any airport in that direction as a viable alternate, although fortunately the weather to the north west remained reliably good. When within range of our company's radio, we discussed our plans with dispatch. We could still make it in to the international as the weather stood now, although I was doubtful that this would continue to be the case. Shortly afterward my hunch proved right as Edmonton Centre informed us that aircraft were no longer getting into the international either. After passing this information along to dispatch, and a brief discussion of our remaining options, we requested and were cleared direct to Whitecourt, which was 30 miles south-east of our position. Still level at FL 210, our descent would be steeper than
normal.
















With only 10 minutes before our arrival over Whitecourt, the copilot and I began the process of preparing the cockpit for the approach. In an effort not to needlessly rush things along I reminded the copilot that if at any point he felt we were not ready for the approach to let me know, and we would plan to hold until we were. As the copilot informed Whitecourt radio of our intentions, I loaded the VOR runway 29 approach into the GPS, and double checked that the radios were set up to fly the approach. Having finished talking with Whitecourt radio, the copilot briefed me on the applicable altitudes and tracks we would require for the approach and with a few minutes left until our arrival at the waypoint where we would start the approach, we both sat and caught our breath as I began to slow the plane to the speed at which we could bring out the flaps and begin our turn inbound on the approach. Now stabilised on the approach, inbound to the airport, we lower the landing gear and complete the landing checklist. The electric motor which extends the gear made its habitual whine as it pushed against the airflow to get the gear out of their wheel wells and down into their locked position. With the three green lights in the cockpit all indicating that the gear is safely down, the copilot turned his attention to the view out the windshield, waiting for the runway to come into view though the cloud. Three miles back from the field, we broke out of the cloud bases with the runway slightly to our right. The winds were similar to what they were when we left Grande Prairie, strong and gusty out of the north, giving us a bumpy ride down to the runway and a stiff crosswind. Over the runway I slowly start to reduce the power, the main gear chirping onto the runway slightly beyond the 1000' runway markings.

After shutting down, we explain the state of the weather and the situation again to our lone passenger, who is taking the day's changes in stride. With his meeting planned for later in the day, there still remained the possibility that the weather could improve in time for us to get him back into the City for his meeting. After amending our flight plan, calling dispatch and ordering a bit more fuel for the short hop to the City, we sat and waited in front of the weather kiosk in the terminal building for a sign of improving weather back in Edmonton. While the forecast called for improvement in the next few hours, it seemed Mother Nature had a different plan in mind.

After waiting for four hours, as quickly as it had dropped earlier in the day, the weather began to improve. Within the span of ten minutes the weather went from 1/4 mile visibility in heavy snow to 2 miles, and the ceiling from 400 feet to 800. Having the weather to not only start the approach, but probably make it in as well, we departed. The 20 minute flight over to the City was busy, but uneventful. After successfully landing back at the City, and parking on the Esso ramp, I thanked our passenger for his patience and apologised for not being able to get him here in time for his meeting. With a graciousness I wished more people possessed, he thanked us for the flight, and for getting him safely to Edmonton. Although there was really no need for him to have thanked us, its always nice to hear that coming from a passenger.

While the day proved to be challenging for both weather forecasters and pilots alike, looking back over the days weather and events after getting home from work in the evening, I was still shaking my head for not calling for weather before departing Grande Prairie. As it is well known and often said, you cannot change the past. Given that I could not go back and make the call I had failed to make earlier in the day, all I could do was learn from my mistake, and carry that knowledge forward to use later.

"The only real mistake is the one from which we learn nothing." ~John Powell